Planning for Precise Contrast Estimates: Introduction and Tutorial (Preprint)

I just finished a preprint of an introduction and tutorial to sample size planning for precision of contrast estimates. The tutorial focuses on single factor between and within subjects designs, and mixed factorial designs with one within and one between factor. The tutorial contains R-code for sample size planning in these designs.

The preprint is availabe on researchgate: Click (but I am just as happy to send it to you if you like; just let me know).

Planning with assurance, with assurance

Planning for precision requires that we choose a target Margin of Error (MoE; see this post for an introduction to the basic concepts) and a value for assurance, the probability that MoE will not exceed our target MoE.  What your exact target MoE will be depends on your research goals, of course.

Cumming and Calin-Jageman (2017, p. 277) propose a strategy for determining target MoE. You can use this strategy if your research goal is to provide strong evidence that the effect size is non-zero. The strategy is to divide the expected value of the difference by two, and to use that result as your target MoE.

Let's restrict our attention to the comparison of two means. If the expected difference between the two means is Cohens's d = .80, the proposed strategy is to set your target MoE at f = .40, which means that your target MoE is set at .40 standard deviations. If you plan for this value of target MoE with 80% assurance, the recommended sample size is n = 55 participants per group. These results are guaranteed to be true, if it is known for a fact that Cohen's d is .80 and all statistical assumptions apply.

But it is generally not known for a fact that Cohen's d has a particular value and so we need to answer a non-trivial question: what effect size can we reasonably expect? And, how can we have assurance that the MoE will not exceed half the unknown true effect size? One of the many options we have for answering this question is to conduct a pilot study, estimate the plausible values of the effect size and use these values for sample size planning.  I will describe a strategy that basically mirrors the sample size planning for power approach described by Anderson, Kelley, and Maxwell (2017).

The procedure is as follows. In order to plan with approximately 80% assurance, estimate on the basis of your pilot the 80% confidence interval for the population effect size and use half the value of the lower limit for sample size planning with 90% assurance. This will give you 81% assurance that assurance MoE is no larger than half the unknown true effect size.

Planning for precise contrast estimates in between subjects designs

Here I would like to explain the procedure for sample size planning for one-way and two-way (factorial) between subjects designs. We will consider examples based on and described in Haans (2018).

The first example: one-way design

The first example considers the effect of seating location  of students on their educational performance. Seating location is defined as distance from the teacher and operationalized in terms of the row the student is seated in, with first row being the closest to the teacher and the fourth row being the furthest away. 20 Students are randomly assigned to one of the four possible rows, so N = 20, n = 5. The dependent variable is the course grade of the student. (Note: the data and study are hypothetical).

As Haans (2018) explains, one psychological theory explaining the effect of seating position on educational performance is based on social influence. This theory posits that due to the social influence of the teacher, the students that are seated closest to the teacher find themselves in a state of undivided attention. This undivided attention causes their educational performance to be better than the students who are seated further away.

In operational terms, then, we may expect that first row students will have a better average grade than students seated on the other rows. So, the quantitative research question we are interested in is:

"How much do the average grades differ between students seated first row and the students seated on other rows?"

We can estimate this quantity with a Helmert Contrast, where we assign a contrast weight of 1 to mean of the first row grades and weights -1/3 to the means of the grades in the other rows.

Haans (2018) gives us the following results. The contrast estimate equals 2.00 , 95% CI [0.27, 3.73]. In order to interpret this more easily, we divide this estimate by the square root Mean Square Error, to obtain the standardized estimate and standardized confidence interval (not to be confused with the confidence interval of the standardized estimate, but that's a different story. The result is: 1.26, 95% CI [0.17, 2.36].

To answer the research question, the estimated difference equals 1.26 standard deviations, which according to rule-of-thumbs frequently used in psychology is a large difference. The CI shows the enormous amount of uncertainty of this estimate: population values between 0.17 (small) and 2.36 (very large) are also consistent with the observed data and our statistical assumptions. So, it seems safe to conclude that it looks like there is a positive effect of seating position, but the wide range of the CI makes it clear that the data do not tell us enough about the size of the effect, the precision is simply too low.

The precision is f = 1.09, which according to my rules-of-thumb is very imprecise (I consider f = 0.65, to be barely tolerable).

So, let's plan for a replication study with a reasonably precise estimate of  f = 0.40, with 80% assurance. (Note: for some advice on setting target Moe: Planning with assurance, with assurance. ) I've used the app: https://gmulder.shinyapps.io/PlanningFactorialContrasts/ with the default values for a single factor between subjects design with 4 conditions.  According to the app, we need n = 36 participants per condition (making a total of  N = 144).

(For more detailed information considering sample size planning for contrast analysis see: https://the-small-s-scientist.blogspot.com/2019/04/sample-size-planning-for-contrast-estimates.html and for some guidelines for setting target MoE: https://the-small-s-scientist.blogspot.com/2019/03/planning-with-assurance-with-assurance.html)

A rule of thumb for setting target MOE

One of the most difficult aspects of sample size planning for precision is the specification of a target Margin of Error (MoE). Here, I would like to introduce a simple rule of thumb, in the hope that it helps you in determining a reasonable target MoE.
Here, the rule of thumb is applied to obtaining an estimate of the difference between two independent group means, where the two populations are normally distributed with equal variances.

Goal 1: Assessing the direction of an effect

Sample size planning starts with formulating a goal for the research. A very common goal is to try to determine the direction of an effect. For the goal of assessing the direction of an effect, it helps if the confidence interval of the difference contains only positive or negative values. That is, you want a confidence interval that exludes the value 0, for if that value is included, you would probably conclude that the estimate is consistent with both positive and negative effects. Thus, our first goal is to obtain a confidence interval of the mean difference that excludes the value 0.

Now, a confidence interval excludes 0, if obtained MOE is at most equal to the obtained effect size estimate. Suppose that the estimate equals the true effect of say, 0.50, we want MOE to be at most very close to 0.50, otherwise 0 will be included in the interval. But if our estimate underestimates the true effect, say the estimate equals 0.30, we want MOE to be at most very close to 0.30. Likewise, if we overestimate the effect, MOE can be larger than 0.50.

This means that we cannot say, for instance, we expect that the true effect is .50, so let's plan for a target MOE that with 80% assurance is at most .50, because this target MOE may be too large for underestimates of the true effect, depending on the extent to which the effect is underestimated. So, in specifying target MOE, we should take into account that underestimates of the effect size occur. (Actually, these underestimates occur with a relative frequency of 50% in a huge collection of direct replications). We can say that we do not only want to exclude zero from the interval, but also that we want that to occur in a large proportion of direct replications. This will be our second goal. I will call the probabiity associated with our second goal, the probability of exclusion (PE)

The rule of thumb is that if we want 80% probability that a random confidence interval excludes zero, we should plan for an expected MOE equal to f = d / √2. (the square root sign is unreadable in my browser; so in words: the effect size divided by the square root of 2; with mathjax: $f = d / \sqrt{2}$). Since there is 50% probability that obtained MOE will be larger than expected MOE, this is equal to planning for target MOE = f = d / √2, with 50% assurance or simply without assurance. You can do this in the ESCI-software, but also with the R-functions provided below.

The first example in the code below, is an illustration of planning for assessing the direction of the effect, with true effect size d = .50. If we want 80% assurance to have only positive values in our confidence interval, we should plan for a target MoE = expected MoE = f = d / √2 = 0.3535. Using the SampleSize-function below, this gives a sample size n = 63, or total sample size = N = 2*63 = 126. The probability that the confidence interval excludes 0 equals approximately 80% (p = 0.7951). So, the rule of thumb of planning for d / √2, seems to work pretty good.

Goal 2: distinguishing between effect sizes

If your research goal is to estimate the value of the effect size in stead of its direction, the rule of thumb can be used as follows. Suppose we do not know the true effect size, but want to have 80% assurance that we have a high probability to be able to distinguish between small (d = .20) and large effects (d = .80). That is, if the true effect is .20 we want the value .80 to be excluded from the confidence interval and if the true effect is .80, we want the value .20 to be excluded from the confidence interval.

We can proceed as follows, the difference between the effect sizes is .80 - .20 = .60. We use this value to determine target MOE. Thus, if we now plan for a target MoE = expected Moe = d / √2), we should have approximately 80% PE that obtained MoE will exclude 0.80 if the true effect is 0.20 and vice versa. The functions below give sample size n = 44, and the probablity of exclusion equals .7947. So, our rule of thumb, seems to work pretty good again. See example 2 in the code below.

Alternatively, we could take the region of practical equivalence (ROPE) into account. Suppose, our equivalence range equals .10 sigma. If we want to have enough precision to distinguish large from small effects, we should plan as follows. We take the difference between a large effect and the upper equivalence value of a small effect or, equivalently, the difference between a small effect and the lower equivalence vaue of a large effect, i.e. .50, and plan for f = .50 / √2. If the effect is large we expect a confidence interval that excludes the equivalence range for the small effect (and vice versa), with 80% probability of exclusion.

But we could also take the difference between the lower equivalence value of a large effect and the upper equivalence value of a small effect, i.e. .40, and plan for f = .40/√2. (See the third example in the code below) This will give us 80% PE that any true value within the ROPE of the one effect will exclude values in the ROPE of the other. For example, if the true effect is .70, and expected MOE equals .40/√2 = .2828, there is approximately 80% probability that the 95% CI excludes .30, which is in the ROPE of a small effect. The expected CI will be .70 +/- .2828 = [0.4172, 0.9828]. Note that the lower limit is larger than the upper limit of the ROPE for d = .20, as we want it to be. Note, however, that if the true effect is small (d = .20), the CI will exclude effects equivalent to large effects, which is consistent with our research goal, but it will not exlude the value 0 or effects equivalent to a medium effect. Indeed, the expected CI will be [-0.0828, 0.4828]. (This is not a problem, of course, since this was not the purpose of our research)

As a final example, suppose we want sufficient precision to distinguish small from medium effects (or large from medium effects). If we take the ROPE perspective, with an equivalence range of +/- .10 sigma, the lower equivalence value of the medium effect equals .50 - .10 = .40 and the upper limit of the small effect equals .30. If we want 80% assurance that the CI will be small enough to distinguish small from medium effects, we should plan for expected MOE f = (.40 - .30)/√2 = 0.0707. Using the functions below, this requires a sample size n = 1538. (See the final example in the code below).

Setting target MOE: conclusion

In summary, the rule of thumb is to divide the effect size d by √2 and plan for an expected MoE equal to this value. This will give you a sample size that gives approximately 80% assurance that the CI will not contain 0. In the case of distinguishing effect sizes, one option is to divide the difference between the lower equivalence value of the larger effect and the upper equivalence value of the smaller effect by the square root of 2 and plan for an expected MoE equal to this value. This will give you a sample size that gives approximately 80% PE that the CI of the estimated true value of one effect excludes the values in the ROPE of the other effect.

Do you want at least 90% PE? Use the square root of three, in stead of the square root of two, in determining target MoE.

eMoe = function(n) {
eMoe = qt(.975, 2*(n - 1))*sqrt(2/n)
return(eMoe)
}

cost <- function(n, tMoe) {
(eMoe(n) - tMoe)^2
}

sampleSize <- function(tMoe) {
optimize(cost, interval=c(10, 5000), tMoe = tMoe)$minimum
}

# FIRST EXAMPLE
# plan for 80% assurance of excluding 0
# i.e. estimate the direction if true effect
# equals .50 

d = .50

#application of rule of thumb:
f = .50 / sqrt(2)

#sampleSize (uses ceiling() to round up): 
n = ceiling(sampleSize(f))
n

## [1] 63

# Probabiity of Exclusion (here taken to be equivalent to
# power for two-sided t-test (since true direction is unknown))
df = 2*(n - 1)
ncp = f / sqrt(1/n) #or ncp = d / sqrt(2/n)

pt(qt(.025, df), df, ncp) + 1 - pt(qt(.975, df), df, ncp)

## [1] 0.7951683

# SECOND EXAMPLE: 
# distinguish between small and large effect sizes: 
d = .80 - .20
f = d / sqrt(2)

n = ceiling(sampleSize(f))
n

## [1] 44

df = 2*(n - 1)
ncp = f / sqrt(1/n) #or ncp = d / sqrt(2/n)

#PE: 

pt(qt(.025, df), df, ncp) + 1 - pt(qt(.975, df), df, ncp)

## [1] 0.79467

# EXAMPLE 3: distinguish small and large with ROPE
# ROPE small and large: 
rope.small = c(.10, .30)
rope.large = c(.70, .90)

d = rope.large[1] - rope.small[2]
f = d / sqrt(2)

n = ceiling(sampleSize(f))

n

## [1] 98

df = 2*(n - 1)
ncp = f / sqrt(1/n) #or ncp = d / sqrt(2/n)

#PE: 

pt(qt(.025, df), df, ncp) + 1 - pt(qt(.975, df), df, ncp)

## [1] 0.7956414

# Example 4: distinguish medium from small 
# or medium from large with ROPE

rope.medium = c(.40, .60)
d = rope.medium[1] - rope.small[2]
f = d / sqrt(2)

n = ceiling(sampleSize(f))

n

## [1] 1538

df = 2*(n - 1)
ncp = f / sqrt(1/n) #or ncp = d / sqrt(2/n)

#PE:

pt(qt(.025, df), df, ncp) + 1 - pt(qt(.975, df), df, ncp)

## [1] 0.7916783

Sample size planning for precision: the basics

In this post, I will introduce some of the ideas underlying sample size planning for precision. The ideas are illustrated with a shiny-application which can be found here: https://gmulder.shinyapps.io/PlanningApp/. The app illustrates the basic theory considering sample size planning for two independent groups. (If the app is no longer available (my allotted active monthly hours are limited on shinyapps.io), contact me and I'll send you the code).

The basic idea

The basic idea is that we are planning an experiment to estimate the difference in population means of an experimental and a control group. We want to know how many observations per group we have to make in order to estimate the difference between the means with a given target precision. 

Our measure of precision is the Margin of Error (MOE).  In the app, we specify our target MOE as a fraction (f) of the population standard deviation. However, we do not only specify our target MOE, but also our desired level of assurance. The assurance is the probability that our obtained MOE will not exceed our target MOE. Thus, if the assurance is .80 and our target MOE is f = .50, we have a probability of 80% that our obtained MOE will not exceed f = .50. 

The only part of the app you need for sample size planning is the "Sample size planning"-form. Specify f, and the assurance, and the app will give you the desired sample size. 

If you do that with the default values f = .50 and Assurance  = .80, the app will give you the following results on the Planning Results-tab:  Sample Size: 36.2175, Expected MOE (f): 0.46. This tells you that you need to sample 37 participants (for instance) per group and then the Expected MOE (the MOE you will get on average) will equal 0.46 (or even a little less, since you sample more than 36.2175 participants). 

The Planning-Results-tab also gives you a figure for the power of the t-test, testing the NHST nil-hypothesis for the effect size (Cohen's d) specified in the "Set population values"-form. Note that this form, like the rest of the app provides details that are not necessary for sample size planning for precision, but make the theoretical concepts clear. So, let's turn to those details. 

The population

Even though it is not at all necessary to specify the population values in detail, considering the population helps to realize the following. The sample size calculations and the figures for expected MOE and power, are based on the assumption that we are dealing with random samples from normal populations with equal variances (standard deviations). 

From these three assumptions, all the results follow deductively.  The following is important to realize:  if these assumptions do not obtain, the truth of the (statistical) conclusions we derive by deduction is no longer guaranteed. (Maybe you have never before realized that sample size planning involves deductive reasoning; deductive reasoning is also required for the calculation of p-values and to prove that 95% confidence intervals contain the value of the population parameter in 95% of the cases; without these assumptions is it uncertain what the true p-value is and whether or not the 95% confidence interval is in fact a 95% confidence interval).

In general, then, you should try to show (to others, if not to yourself) that it is reasonable to assume normally distributed populations, with equal variances and random sampling, before you decide that the p-value of your t-test, the width of your confidence interval, and the results of sample size calculations are believable.

The populations in the app are normal distributions. By default, the app shows two such distributions. One of the distributions, the one I like to think about as corresponding to the control condition, has μ = 0, the other one has μ = 0.5. Both distributions have a standard deviation (σ = 1). The standardized difference between the means is therefore equal to δ = 0.50.

The default populations are presented in Figure 1 below.

Planning for a precise contrast estimate: the mixed model case

In a previous post (here), we saw how we can determine sample size for obtaining, with assurance, a precise interaction contrast estimate. In that post we considered a 2 x 2 factorial design. In this post, I will extend the discussion to the mixed model case. That is, we will consider sample size planning for a precise interaction estimate in case of a design with 2 fixed factors and two random factors: participant and stimulus (item). (A pdf version of this post can be found here: view pdf. )

In order to keep things relatively simple, we will focus on a design where both participants and items are nested under condition. So, each treatment condition has a unique sample of participants and items. We will call this design the both-within-condition design  (see, for instance, Westfall et al. 2014, for detailed descriptions of this design). We will analyse the 2 x 2 factorial design as a single factor design (the factor has a = 4 levels) and formulate an interaction contrast.

Planning for a precise slope estimate in simple regression

In this post, I will show you a way of determining a sample size for obtaining a precise estimate of the slope $\beta_1$of the simple linear regression equation $\hat{Y_i} = \beta_0 + \beta_1X_i$. The basic ingredients we need for sample size planning are a measure of the precision, a way to determine the quantiles of the sampling distribution of our measure of precision, and a way to calculate sample sizes.

As our measure of precision we choose the Margin of Error (MOE), which is the half-width of the 95% confidence interval of our estimate (see: Cumming, 2012; Cumming & Calin-Jageman, 2017; see also www.thenewstatistics.com).

 

The distribution of the margin of error of the regression slope

In the case of simple linear regression, assuming normality and homogeneity of variance, MOE is $t_{.975}\sigma_{\hat{\beta_1}}$, where $t_{.975}$, is the .975 quantile of the central t-distribution with $N - 2$ degrees of freedom, and $\sigma_{\hat{\beta_1}}$ is the standard error of the estimate of $\beta_1$. 

An expression of the squared standard error of the estimate of $\beta_1$ is $\frac{\sigma^2_{Y|X}}{\sum{(X_i - \bar{X})}^2}$ (Wilcox, 2017): the variance of Y given X divided by the sum of squared errors of X. The variance $\sigma^2_{Y|X}$ equals $\sigma^2_y(1 - \rho^2_{YX})$, the variance of Y multiplied by 1 minus the squared population correlation between Y and X, and it is estimated with the residual variance $\frac{\sum{(Y - \hat{Y})^2}}{df_e}$, where $df_e = N - 2$.

The estimated squared standard error is given in (1)

$$\hat{\sigma}_{\hat{\beta_{1}}}^{2}=\frac{\sum(Y-\hat{Y})^{2}/df_{e}}{\sum(X-\bar{X})^{2}}. \tag{1} $$

With respect to the sampling distribution of MOE, we first note the following. The distribution of estimates of the residual variance in the numerator of (1) is a scaled $\chi^2$-distribution:

$$\frac{\sum(Y-\hat{Y})^{2}}{\sigma_{y}^{2}(1-\rho^{2})}\sim\chi^{2}(df_{e}),$$

thus

$$\frac{\sum(Y-\hat{Y})^{2}}{df_{e}}\sim\frac{\sigma_{y}^{2}(1-\rho^{2})\chi^{2}(df_{e})}{df_{e}}.$$

Second, we note that

$$\frac{\sum(X-\bar{X})^{2}}{\sigma_{X}^{2}}\sim\chi^{2}(df),$$

where $df = N - 1$, therefore

$$\sum(X-\bar{X})^{2}\sim\sigma_{X}^{2}\chi^{2}(df).$$

Alternatively, since $\sum{(X - \bar{X})^2} = df\sigma^2_X$, and multiplying by 1 ($\frac{df}{df}$). 

$$df\sigma_{X}^{2}\sim df\sigma_{X}^{2}\chi^{2}(df)/df.$$

In terms of the sampling distribution of (1), then, we have the ratio of two (scaled) $\chi^2$ distributions, one with $df_e = N - 2$ degrees of freedom, and one with $df = N - 1$ degrees of freedom. Or something like:

$$ \hat{\sigma}_{\hat{\beta_{1}}}^{2}\sim\frac{\sigma_{y}^{2}(1-\rho^{2})\chi^{2}(df_{e})/df_{e}}{df\sigma_{X}^{2}\chi^{2}(df)/df}=\frac{\sigma_{y}^{2}(1-\rho^{2})}{df\sigma_{X}^{2}}\frac{\chi^{2}(df_{e})/df_{e}}{\chi^{2}(df)/df}=\frac{\sigma_{y}^{2}(1-\rho^{2})F(df_{e,}df)}{df\sigma_{X}^{2}},$$

which means that the sampling distribution of MOE is:

$$ \hat{MOE}\sim t_{.975}(N-2)\sqrt{\frac{\sigma_{y}^{2}(1-\rho^{2})F(N-2,N-1)}{(N-1)\sigma_{X}^{2}}}. \tag{2} $$

This last equation, that is (2), can be used to obtain quantiles of the sampling distribution of MOE, which enables us to determine assurance MOE, that is the value of MOE that under repeated sampling will not exceed a target value with a given probability. For instance, if we want to know the .80 quantile of estimates of MOE, that is, assurance is .80, we determine the .80 quantile of the (central) F-distribution with N - 2 and N - 1 degrees of freedom and fill in (2) to obtain a value of MOE that will not be exceeded in 80\% of replication experiments.

For instance, suppose $\sigma^2_Y = 1$, $\sigma^2_X = 1$, $\rho = .50$, $N = 100$, and assurance is .80, then according to (2), 80\% of estimated MOEs will not exceed the value given by:

vary = 1
varx = 1
rho = .5
N = 100 
dfe = N - 2
dfx - N - 1

assu = .80
t = qt(.975, dfe)
MOE.80 = t*sqrt(vary*(1 - rho^2)*qf(.80, dfe, dfx)/(dfx*varx))
MOE.80

## [1] 0.1880535

 

What does a quick simulation study tell us? 

A quick simulation study may be used to check whether this is at all accurate. And, yes, the estimated quantile from the simulation study is pretty close to what we would expect based on (2). If you run the code below, the estimate equals 0.1878628.

library(MASS)
set.seed(355)
m = c(0, 0)

#note: s below is the variance-covariance matrix. In this case,
#rho and the cov(y, x) have the same values
#otherwise: rho = cov(x, y)/sqrt(varY*VarX) (to be used in the 

#functions that calculate MOE)
#equivalently, cov(x, y) = rho*sqrt(varY*varX) (to be used
#in the specification of the variance-covariance matrix for 

#generating bivariate normal variates)

s = matrix(c(1, .5, .5, 1), 2, 2)
se <- rep(10000, 0)
for (i in 1:10000) {
theData <- mvrnorm(100, m, s)
mod <- lm(theData[,1] ~ theData[,2])
se[i] <- summary(mod)$coefficients[4]
}
MOE = qt(.975, 98)*se
quantile(MOE, .80)

##       80% 
## 0.1878628

 

Planning for precision

If we want to plan for precision we can do the following. We start by making a function that calculates the assurance quantile of the sampling distribution of MOE described in (2). Then we formulate a  squared cost function, which we will optimize for the sample sizeusing the optimize function in R.

Suppose we want to plan for a target MOE of .10 with 80% assurance.We may do the following.

vary = 1
varx = 1
rho = .5
assu = .80
tMOE = .10

MOE.assu = function(n, vary, varx, rho, assu) {
        varY.X = vary*(1 - rho^2)
        dfe = n - 2
        dfx = n - 1
        t = qt(.975, dfe)
        q.assu = qf(assu, dfe, dfx)
        MOE = t*sqrt(varY.X*q.assu/(dfx * varx))
        return(MOE)
}

cost = function(x, tMOE) { 

cost = (MOE.assu(x, vary=vary, varx=varx, rho=rho, assu=assu) 
- tMOE)^2
}

#note samplesize is at least 40, at most 5000. 
#note that since we already know that N = 100 is not enough
#in stead of 40 we might just as well set N = 100 at the lower
#limit of the interval
(samplesize = ceiling(optimize(cost, interval=c(40, 5000), 
tMOE = tMOE)$minimum))

## [1] 321

#check the result: 
MOE.assu(samplesize, vary, varx, rho, assu)

## [1] 0.09984381

Let's simulate with the proposed sample size

Let's check it with a simulation study. The value of estimated .80 of estimates of MOE is 0.1007269 (if you run the below code with random seed 335), which is pretty close to what we would expect based on (2).

set.seed(355)
m = c(0, 0)

#note: s below is the variance-covariance matrix. In this case,
#rho and the cov(y, x) have the same values
#otherwise: rho = cov(x, y)/sqrt(varY*VarX) (to be used in the 

#functions that calculate MOE)
#equivalently, cov(x, y) = rho*sqrt(varY*varX) (to be used
#in the specification of the variance-covariance matrix for 
#generating bivariate normal variates)

s = matrix(c(1, .5, .5, 1), 2, 2)
se <- rep(10000, 0)
samplesize = 321
for (i in 1:10000) {
theData <- mvrnorm(samplesize, m, s)
mod <- lm(theData[,1] ~ theData[,2])
se[i] <- summary(mod)$coefficients[4]
}
MOE = qt(.975, 98)*se
quantile(MOE, .80)

##       80% 
## 0.1007269

 

References

Cumming, G. (2012). Understanding the New Statistics. Effect Sizes, Confidence Intervals, and Meta-Analysis. New York: Routledge
Cumming, G., & Calin-Jageman, R. (2017). Introduction to the New Statistics: Estimation, Open Science, and Beyond. New York: Routledge.
Wilcox, R. (2017). Understanding and Applying Basic Statistical Methods using R. Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley and Sons.

Planning for a precise interaction contrast estimate

In my previous post (here),  I wrote about obtaining a confidence interval for the estimate of an interaction contrast. I demonstrated, for a simple two-way independent factorial design, how to obtain a confidence interval by making use of the information in an ANOVA source table and estimates of the marginal means and how a custom contrast estimate can be obtained with SPSS.

One of the results of the analysis in the previous post was that the 95% confidence interval for the interaction was very wide. The estimate was .77, 95% CI [0.04, 1.49]. Suppose that it is theoretically or practically important to know the value of the contrast to a more precise degree.  (I.e. some researchers will be content that the CI allows for a directional qualitative interpretation: there seems to exist a positive interaction effect, but others, more interested in the quantitative questions may not be so easily satisfied).  Let's see how we can plan the research to obtain a more precise estimate. In other words, let's plan for precision.

Of course, there are several ways in which the precision of the estimate can be increased. For instance, by using measurement procedures that are designed to obtain reliable data, we could change the experimental design, for example switching to a repeated measures (crossed) design, and/or increase the number of observations. An example of the latter would be to increase the number of participants and/or the number of observations per participant.  We will only consider the option of increasing the number of participants, and keep the independent factorial design, although in reality we would of course also strive for a measurement instrument that generally gives us highly reliable data. (By the way, it is possible to use my Precision application to investigate the effects of changing the experimental design on the expected precision of contrast estimates in studies with 1 fixed factor and 2 random factors).

The plan for the rest of this post is as follows. We will focus on getting a short confidence interval for our interaction estimate, and we will do that by considering the half-width of the interval, the Margin of Error (MOE). First we will try to find a sample size that gives us an expected MOE (in repeated replication of the experiment with new random samples) no more than a target MOE. Second, we will try to find a sample size that gives a MOE smaller than or equal to our target MOE in a specifiable percentage (say, 80% or 90%) of replication experiments. The latter approach is called planning with assurance.